2023

AIB has published the Residual Mixes and European Attribute Mix of 2023.

These figures represent the part of electricity supply in Europe that is not tracked with guarantees of origin and therefore guaranteeing the accuracy and reliability of the GO system. The calculation was carried out by Grexel Systems Ltd on behalf of AIB.

The 2023 calculation marks the fifth consecutive year in which the AIB Residual Mix calculation has been carried out according to the Shifted Issuing Based Methodology. Using this methodology, results continue to be consistent year-on-year.

Similar to 2022, in 2023 the total electricity production decreased by 92 TWh in the calculation area (91 TWh decrease in 2022 from 2021). This was mainly driven by the sharp decline in fossil production by 245 TWh from 2022. Nuclear production remained fairly unchanged, while renewables rose by 149 TWh compared to 2022. The evolution was much more positive in 2023 than in 2022, when there was an increase in fossil production and no growth in renewables compared to 2021.

Energy tracking volumes continue to rise. Compared to 2022, the total recorded issuance volume was 982 TWh (EECS) and 564 TWh (national tracking systems), i.e. 1550 TWh, which is 9,6% more than in 2022. Cancellations volume was 1 288 TWh in 2023, decreasing 3 % from 2022. Issuances were approximately 200 TWh more than cancellations and expiries together, which means that a significant share of 2023 production GOs were still active in 1.4.2024.

Issuance volume for renewable energy totaled 1362 TWh (+11% from 2022), which represents 90% of total RES production. The ratio between issuance and production is equal for 2022, which means RES tracking increased with similar velocity as RES production and only 10% of renewables are untracked within the calculation area. Average renewable share in the residual mixes was 13,5%, which is 1,2% pp less than in 2022.

All reported transaction volumes include also contract-based tracking, which is not based on certificates.

Regarding CO2 emissions, this year for the second time, the Ecoinvent data was used as input factors to replace the input emission factors calculated in the RE-DISS project. The average CO2 content in residual mixes rose by 15,4 gCO2/kWh (493 gCO2/kWh on average in all residual mixes).

The European Attribute Mix for 2022 is 2,41 % renewable, 11,20 % nuclear and 86,39 % fossil. This EAM fills a gap for countries that export such quantities of GOs that there are not sufficient domestic attributes left to determine the origin of all the domestic electricity consumption. The shares of energy sources in the EAM come from countries that import such quantities of GOs that they result in a domestic surplus of attributes compared to domestic electricity consumption. The change in EAM from last year is renewables: -6,80 percentage points (pp), nuclear: -5,8pp and fossil: +12,6pp.

Highlighted results from the calculation:

• The European Attribute Mix for 2022 is 2,41 % renewable, 11,20 % nuclear and 86,39 % fossil.
  • The change in last year is (respectively) -6,80 percentage points (pp), -5,8pp and +12,6pp.
  • Environmental attributes of the EAM were 599,23 gCO2/kWh for CO2 and 0,39 mg/kWh for radioactive waste.
• Renewable share of the EAM was lower and CO2 content higher than ever in the calculation history.
• In line with the EAM, on average the residual mixes showed a decrease in the renewable share: from 14,7% to 13,5% in 2023 (-1,2pp). Respective values for nuclear were 19,0% and 16,5% (-2,5pp) as well as for fossil 60,4% and 64,1% (+3,7pp).
• The proportion of total electricity consumption tracked remained at 2022 level (41,8% in 2023), with 1 288 TWh of recorded cancellations.

Country specific results:

• The share of renewable energy in the residual mix decreased by over 10pp in 5 countries: Belgium, Denmark, Lithuania, Montenegro, Norway. In addition, the decrease was 4-7pp in Finland, Greece, Croatia, Iceland, Portugal, Slovenia, and Slovakia (7 countries).
• On the contrary, the renewable share increased notably in the residual mixes of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Great Britain, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Romania, and Sweden.
• Like last years, no residual mix was calculated for Austria and Switzerland due to full disclosure regimes.
• Close to all EECS countries had a large difference between the production and residual mix, which further exemplifies that most renewable attributes are explicitly tracked.

Download the full report for more insights.
Download Excel datasheet for numeric values (data to follow).